What is the probability of the population surviving,What is the probability of the population surviving for 100 years if current conditions persist?

Week 4Post-Lab: Population Viability Analysis
1. Start with the initial 100 year model in which N(0) is 10, λ=1, and the standard deviation of λ is 0.5. What is the probability of the population surviving for 100 years if current conditions persist?

2. What value, if any, is there for running your model for 100 years rather than 4 years? What value, if any, is there for running 100 trials rather than 10? Are there any drawbacks to running models for longer time periods or more trials? If so, what are they?

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3. A stochastic model like this should yield the same results as a deterministic model if the variation is very low. Test if this is true by plugging in a very low value for Std λ, 0 or 0.0001. (Excel may not let you use 0). Does the stochastic model behave the same way as the deterministic model at low variation? How do you know?

What is the probability of the population surviving for 100 years if current conditions persist?

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